US Federal Reserve — Future Index

Signals

Attention84
elevated
+20.7 ptsup over 24 hours
24 hours7 days30 days
00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00
09-1009-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-16
08-2008-2709-0309-10
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 98unusually highPublic discussionHacker News
- 71elevatedSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- 44below usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
Medium confidence0.61
3 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion1
Up to date

What moved

The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.

AttentionPublic discussionHacker News
Attention rose sharply
12.0× its usual variation — far larger than usual
49
+49 mentionsup over the last 24 hours
Coincided with a change in forecast movement.
Medium confidence0.68Up to date
Hacker News
Forecast movementForecast marketsKalshi
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 1.50%?
Forecast probability rose
3.1× its usual variation — larger than usual
76%somewhat likely
+8.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Coincided with a change in attention.
Low confidence0.05Up to date
Kalshi

84 changes were compared. Not shown: 23 with nothing to compare against, 59 within their usual range.

Across signals

NARRATIVE GAP
News coverage rose while public attention stayed at its usual level.
US Federal Reserve
Public attention
-0.1σ from usual, 2 sources
Coverage
7 separate reports, 5.3σ from usual
Strength within narrative gap: 66%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Search & activityinternal_analytics
Low confidenceOut of date
- The coverage baseline covers a short history.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
- One of the signals is older than its usual update interval.

What was reported

Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.

2026-09-16 23:03 UTC
What to know about US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in 3 years
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextWhat to know about US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in 3 years opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
2026-09-16 22:26 UTC
Watch: Why has the Federal Reserve raised interest rates?
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextWatch: Why has the Federal Reserve raised interest rates? opens in a new tabBBC News
BBC News
2026-09-16 18:24 UTC
US Fed raises key rate for first time in 3 years
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextUS Fed raises key rate for first time in 3 years opens in a new tabDeutsche Welle
Deutsche Welle

5 further occurrences on this page — show them

2026-09-16 18:03 UTC
US Fed raises interest rates as inflation weighs on economy
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextUS Fed raises interest rates as inflation weighs on economy opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
2026-09-16 18:00 UTC
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting
1 independent origin · medium confidence
Reports
- Official sourceFederal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting opens in a new tabBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemPrimary report
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2026-09-16 18:00 UTC
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
1 independent origin · medium confidence
Reports
- Official sourceFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement opens in a new tabBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemPrimary report
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2026-09-16 11:19 UTC
Fed expected to raise interest rates.
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextFed expected to raise interest rates. And, board votes to close Kennedy Center opens in a new tabNpr
NPR
2026-09-16 09:00 UTC
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 3 years
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextThe Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 3 years opens in a new tabNpr
NPR

Forecast contracts

The contracts whose probability moved furthest over the last 24 hours — the size of each move and not its direction, measured against that contract's own earlier reading and against no other contract. One row per source's own question; these are not combined into a single figure.

Showing 3 of 110; 107 more are linked to this topic and not listed here.

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 3.00%?
Forecast marketsKalshi
60%somewhat likely−10.5 ptsdown over the last 24 hours
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 1.50%?
Forecast marketsKalshi
76%somewhat likely+8.0 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2034 be above 2.75%?
Forecast marketsKalshi
42%about even−6.0 ptsdown over the last 24 hours

Show all 110 contracts

Sources

3 contributing sources — view breakdown

Attention

Hacker NewsPublic discussion45%98.2
Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%44.4
Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity45%71.0

How the attention figure is calculated · method version 1.2.0 · What these figures do not say