Prediction markets
Attention around Prediction markets is elevated, and has not moved over the last 24 hours.
Signals
- Attention79elevated±0.0 ptsunchanged over 24 hoursNo history yet
10-2610-2710-2810-2910-3010-3111-01
10-0810-1510-2210-29
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 81elevatedSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- 77elevatedSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- 76elevatedPublic discussionHacker News
- 71elevatedPublic discussionMastodon
- 66elevatedPublic discussionLemmy
Low confidence0.22Up to date5 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion3
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 5 measurements were compared.
5 changes were compared.
Across signals
No relationships between signals were detected this week. Checked 1 topic: 0 had a forecast contract moving well outside its usual range and 1 had unusually high public attention, and none of them showed a second layer doing something measurable at the same time.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
Polymarket reports outage on international exchange, halts trading opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
Polymarket suspends trading after third-party breach leads to user losses opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CoinDesk
Utah charges Kalshi and its CEO with illegally promoting online gambling opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
The Verge
5 further occurrences on this page — show them
Kalshi valuation jumps to $40 billion in latest funding round opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
Utah charges predictions platform Kalshi with illegal gambling opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CoinDesk
Kalshi, co-founders hit with criminal charges in US state of Utah opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
Al Jazeera English
Polymarket faces renewed CFTC probe over U.S. access to offshore platform opens in a new tab
1 independent origin · low confidence
CNBC
1 independent origin · low confidence
CoinDesk
What people are discussing
Posts and shared links on the discussion platforms this site reads that are about this topic, over the last two days, the most discussed first. Titles are the platform's own. Counts are the platform's where it publishes them, and otherwise the comments or shares this site read; none of it is a figure this site calculates.
Polymarket 1h halt after vendor compromise; affected users will be 'made whole' opens in a new tab
Polymarket Halted International Trading After Hackers Drained Accounts opens in a new tab
Hackers Hijacked DebugBear's DNS To Serve Malicious JavaScript opens in a new tab
5 more posts — show them
Polymarket 1h halt after vendor compromise; affected users will be 'made whole' opens in a new tab
Polymarket Breach Alert: Wallet-Draining Code Found in a Third-Party Script opens in a new tab
Hackers Swipe Millions from Polymarket Users in Latest Security Breach opens in a new tab
Some Polymarket user funds stolen by hackers opens in a new tab
Forecast contracts
One row per source's own question. These are listed side by side for comparison and are not combined into a single figure — each source is answering its own question, in its own words.
- 1%very unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
- 27%somewhat unlikely±0.0 ptsunchanged over the last 24 hours
Sources
5 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion20%76.0
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%80.9
- LemmyPublic discussion20%66.1
- MastodonPublic discussion20%71.4
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity30%76.6
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 3.0.0 · What these figures do not say
Readers' discussion on this site
Comments from readers of this site, newest first. They are opinions, not a measurement: no figure on this page is computed from them.
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