Japan
Attention around Japan is about usual, and has not moved over the last 24 hours.
PoliticsJP
Signals
- ±0.5 ptsunchanged over 24 hoursAttention46about usual
00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00
09-1009-1109-1209-1309-1409-1509-16
08-2008-2709-0309-10
Each source’s own reading, on the same scale as the figure above
- 62about usualSearch & activityWikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)
- 37below usualSearch & activityFuture Index internal search and pageviews
- 32below usualPublic discussionHacker News
Medium confidence0.50Up to date3 sourcesSearch & activity2Public discussion1
What moved
The largest movements across forecasts, attention, discussion sentiment and reporting in the last 24 hours, each compared with how much that topic usually moves.
Nothing moved beyond its usual range over this window. 7 measurements were compared.
7 changes were compared. Not shown: 2 with nothing to compare against, 5 within their usual range.
Across signals
QUIET MOVE
Forecast probability moved while public attention stayed at its usual level.
- Forecast
- 8.5 pts over 24 hours, across 1 contractWill Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? from 17.0% to 25.5%
- Public attention
- 0.5σ from usual, 1 source
Strength within quiet move: 43%
- Public discussionhackernews
- Forecast marketspolymarket
- One forecast contract moved.
- One attention source stood behind this.
- Some of the underlying activity was discounted as concentrated.
What was reported
Occurrences reported on this topic, the most widely reported first. One entry per occurrence, however many outlets carried it, and the count on each is the outlets that reported it independently.
China’s defence chief warns against coercion, avoids US, Japan mention
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextChina’s defence chief warns against coercion, avoids US, Japan mention opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Pay to ghost your boss: Japan's resignation business
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextPay to ghost your boss: Japan's resignation business opens in a new tabDeutsche Welle
Deutsche Welle
Japanese PM-backed candidate wins Okinawa gubernatorial election
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextJapanese PM-backed candidate wins Okinawa gubernatorial election opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
3 further occurrences on this page — show them
Japan, India, Ukraine: Why some countries are uneasy about new UN map
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextJapan, India, Ukraine: Why some countries are uneasy about new UN map opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Qatar beat Iran in men’s basketball as Asian Games begin in Japan
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextQatar beat Iran in men’s basketball as Asian Games begin in Japan opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Japan baseball great and atomic bomb survivor Isao Harimoto dies aged 86
1 independent origin · low confidence
Reports
- News contextJapan baseball great and atomic bomb survivor Isao Harimoto dies aged 86 opens in a new tabAl Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Forecast contracts
The contracts whose probability moved furthest over the last 24 hours — the size of each move and not its direction, measured against that contract's own earlier reading and against no other contract. One row per source's own question; these are not combined into a single figure.
- 26%somewhat unlikely+8.5 ptsup over the last 24 hours
Sources
3 contributing sources — view breakdown
Attention
- Hacker NewsPublic discussion45%32.0
- Future Index internal search and pageviewsSearch & activity10%37.4
- Wikimedia Pageviews (Analytics API)Search & activity45%62.1
How the attention figure is calculated · method version 1.2.0 · What these figures do not say