Where the Uncertainty figure came from
Built from how unsettled forecast prices are, how far communities differ, how quickly attention is moving, and how weakly founded the other three figures are.
How it is put together
Forecast prices refusing to settle
How much each tracked question's probability has been moving about, averaged across the questions that have enough readings to say.
If this produces nothingA question with too few readings has no variability figure and contributes nothing here, rather than contributing a calm one.
Communities differing from each other
How far apart the platforms are in the overall tone of their discussion of the same subjects.
In full: How far communities are apart
If this produces nothingWith one platform being read there is nothing to differ, so this part is left out entirely and its weight is shared among the rest. It is never scored as agreement — a sample that cannot disagree with itself has not been found to agree.
Attention moving quickly
How many of the tracked subjects have had their attention figure move sharply over the last day, taken across the whole tracked set.
In full: Attention — how much of the tracked world is unusually active
If this produces nothingIf no subject could be scored, this part is left out rather than read as attention sitting still.
How weakly founded the other figures are
This part reads the confidence the other three figures published for themselves. It is the part that notices when the rest of the vector rests on very little.
In full: How well founded each figure is
If this produces nothingIt is the one part that cannot be absent while anything else is published, because it is a reading of the others rather than of the world.
This figure
The parts are scored separately and added together by their weights, so that one settled part cannot pull the whole figure down. A part that cannot be measured is left out and its weight is shared among the rest.
In full: Uncertainty — how much is in dispute or in motion
If this produces nothingIf every part is missing, the figure is not published at all. A low figure means the signals were measured and found settled, and never that they could not be measured.
Uncertainty — how much is in dispute or in motion
Each part is scored from 0 to 1 and they are combined by the weights below. A part that cannot be measured at all is left out and its weight is shared among the rest, rather than being scored zero — not measuring something and measuring it to be absent are different statements.
The parts are added rather than multiplied, which is the opposite of how the confidence score below is built, and the difference is deliberate. Forecast prices being settled does not make a violent swing in attention less unsettling, so one calm part must not be able to pull the whole figure down.
The last part is a reading of the other figures rather than of the world: it is high exactly when the rest of the vector rests on little. It is what stops a pulse assembled from one working source out of three from reading as a calm day.
What this does not say
- **Disagreement between forecast sources is not measured at all.** It is the input this figure would most obviously want, and comparing contracts across sources is out of scope for this product entirely — see the boundary on the outlook figure above.
- Uncertainty is not bad news. A high figure means the signals are moving or disagreeing; it says nothing about whether anything harmful is happening.
- It is not a probability, a risk level or a forecast of volatility. It is a summary of how much the things this product measures currently disagree with each other and with themselves.
- Community disagreement contributes nothing today, because only one community is being read.
- **When a whole layer goes dark this figure can drop rather than climb, and it is left that way on purpose.** The last part is computed from how well founded the figures that *were* published are, and withdrawing the weakest founded of them raises that average and lowers the doubt: measured on a test world, taking the attention layer away moved this figure from 34.09 down to 29.40. That is the defect this figure was withdrawn for, and the repair belongs to what replaced it — the data conditions block counts every reading this product defines rather than only the ones it managed. Changing the arithmetic here instead would mean a withdrawn figure quietly measuring something new under the same name, which is exactly what a deprecation window is for preventing. A client still reading it receives the quantity it was written against, defect included.
Numbers this uses 7 constants
| Value | What it does | How it was arrived at |
|---|---|---|
0.35 share of the scoreuncertainty.weights.forecast_volatility | How much forecast prices refusing to settle counts toward uncertainty. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.2 share of the scoreuncertainty.weights.sentiment_disagreement | How much communities differing from each other counts toward uncertainty. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.25 share of the scoreuncertainty.weights.attention_change | How much attention moving quickly across topics counts toward uncertainty. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.2 share of the scoreuncertainty.weights.low_coverage | How much it counts that the rest of these figures are themselves weakly founded. It is what stops a figure computed from almost nothing from reading as calm. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.05 probability per hour, square-root scaleduncertainty.volatilityReference | How unsettled forecast prices have to be, on average, before that part of the score is full. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.5 polarityuncertainty.disagreementReference | How far apart two communities' overall tone has to be before that part of the score is full. Nothing produces this figure today. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
15 index pointsuncertainty.attentionChangeReference | How far the average topic's attention has to move over a day before that part of the score is full. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
What this product does not claim
Stated positions about what this figure is, not a list of things not built yet.
There is no single score for the world, and there will not be one here
Future Index publishes four readings and never a total. That is the product's oldest commitment and the one it would be easiest to break: a single number would be more shareable, easier to put in a headline, and simpler to watch over time.
Forecasts are not combined across sources
Future Index does not currently combine forecasts from different sources into a single number. Each question shown is one source's contract, and every figure on it is computed from that source alone.
What this product can see is reported separately from what the world is doing
There are two kinds of number on this site and they are never mixed. World conditions — attention, mood, turbulence, disagreement — are readings of the world. Data conditions — measurement quality, coverage, freshness, representativeness — are readings of this product's own ability to observe it.
Every threshold on this page is stated, not measured
All the numbers here are stated defaults: reasoned choices with an argument behind each and no observed distribution to place them against. That is stronger than it sounds — it means none of them was fitted to anything, not even second-hand.
The rest of it
- This figure inside the full methodology, with every method it draws on
- Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from
- Where the Attention figure comes from
- Where the Mood figure comes from
- Where the Turbulence figure comes from
- Where the Disagreement figure comes from
- The same methodology as JSON
- Which sources this system reads, and on what terms