Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Probability

54.5%

about even

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 54.5% at
  • 24 hours+8.5 ppup over 24 hoursfrom 46.0% at
  • 7 days−5.0 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 59.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 23:22 to 09-16 22:21 UTC. Starts at 59.5%, ends at 54.5%, ranging between 41.0% and 59.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.010424 increments
  • 7 days0.0114168 increments
  • 30 days0.0085334 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.80
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T22:21:08.210Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T23:16:11.893Z.
Participation behind it
$8,758 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.55

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.55 at 2026-09-16T21:21:08.204Z
  • 24h+8.5 points up, measured from 0.46 at 2026-09-15T22:21:09.231Z
  • 7d−5.0 points down, measured from 0.60 at 2026-09-09T22:22:06.079Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.010 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.011 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.009 probability units per √hour, from 334 changes

Confidence 0.80 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.84, carrying 44% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 33% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.90, carrying 22% of the score
  • Time until the question settlesNot published by this source — its share was spread across the inputs that are.
  • the source publishes no close time for this contract

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

Nothing was reported on US state politics in the last 30 days.

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0xb63fbd776203cada01a13bb21b3c52c500bcf904bdfc71627022db1f891f95c5

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • us-state-politics

Last observed . Page built .