Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Probability

24.0%

somewhat unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 24.0% at
  • 24 hours+0.5 ppup over 24 hoursfrom 23.5% at
  • 7 days+1.0 ppup over 7 daysfrom 23.0% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 22:22 to 09-16 21:21 UTC. Starts at 23.0%, ends at 24.0%, ranging between 20.5% and 25.0%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.001024 increments
  • 7 days0.0053168 increments
  • 30 days0.0042333 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.83
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T21:21:08.204Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T21:46:11.892Z.
Participation behind it
$6,764 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.24

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.24 at 2026-09-16T20:21:11.063Z
  • 24h+0.5 points up, measured from 0.24 at 2026-09-15T21:21:08.750Z
  • 7d+1.0 points up, measured from 0.23 at 2026-09-09T21:22:05.343Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.001 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.005 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.004 probability units per √hour, from 333 changes

Confidence 0.83 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.82, carrying 44% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.86, carrying 33% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.80, carrying 22% of the score
  • Time until the question settlesNot published by this source — its share was spread across the inputs that are.
  • the source publishes no close time for this contract

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

Nothing was reported on US state politics in the last 30 days.

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x26d2b09d5f5d5bfd520454b3e896f368672f3a9ee542e0af6ef08e3a25e445b0

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • us-state-politics

Last observed . Page built .