Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Will the FDA approve VERVE-102 before Jan 1, 2034?

Probability

78.5%

somewhat likely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour+0.5 ppup over 1 hourfrom 78.0% at
  • 24 hours+1.0 ppup over 24 hoursfrom 77.5% at
  • 7 days±0.0 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 78.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-08 11:02 to 09-15 10:02 UTC. Starts at 78.5%, ends at 78.5%, ranging between 77.0% and 87.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0809-1009-1109-1309-15
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.001424 increments
  • 7 days0.0091168 increments
  • 30 days0.0228298 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.11
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-15T10:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-15T10:25:59.526Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.79

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h+0.5 points up, measured from 0.78 at 2026-09-15T09:02:00.000Z
  • 24h+1.0 points up, measured from 0.78 at 2026-09-14T10:02:00.000Z
  • 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.79 at 2026-09-08T10:02:00.000Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.001 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.009 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.023 probability units per √hour, from 298 changes

Confidence 0.11 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.87, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.50, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 10% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. FDA approves landmark pancreatic cancer drug that's shown to improve survival

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. What to know about Dr.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXFDAVERVE102-VERV-34JAN01

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • drug-approvals

Last observed . Page built .