Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Probability

9.2%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.1 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 9.1% at
  • 24 hours±0.3 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 9.5% at
  • 7 daysNo baseline this far back
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 128 readings from 09-11 04:21 to 09-16 11:21 UTC. Starts at 8.0%, ends at 9.2%, ranging between 2.1% and 12.8%. 127 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1209-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.001924 increments
  • 7 days0.0076127 increments
  • 30 days0.0076127 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.85
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T11:21:08.994Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T11:26:06.328Z.
Participation behind it
$11,666 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.09

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.09 at 2026-09-16T10:21:07.872Z
  • 24h±0.3 points unchanged, measured from 0.09 at 2026-09-15T11:21:58.879Z
  • 7dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.002 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.008 probability units per √hour, from 127 changes
  • 30d0.008 probability units per √hour, from 127 changes

Confidence 0.85 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.87, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.97, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.92, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.46, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Sudan aid networks at risk of collapse, UN agencies warn

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. UN extends partial Sudan arms embargo for a month

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. UK Explanation of Vote delivered by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, following the UN Security Council vote on the Sudan sanctions regime.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Hundreds of thousands lack adequate shelter at Sudan’s Tawila camp

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Sudanese refugee returning home ’to make buildings for our country’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Sudan’s healthcare system on brink of collapse, MSF warns

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Joint Statement for the Interactive Dialogue on the UN Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  5. Foreign fighters and external support fuel Sudan’s war: UN-backed probe

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. Sudanese repair roads by hand in Darfur to improve emergency access

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Sudan’s date palm trees under threat from drought and wildfires

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Dozens killed in rebel attacks on Sudan’s Kordofan, medical group says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Water crisis makes life in Sudan’s El Obeid refugee camps even worse

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Statement by Ambassador Sarah MacIntosh, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Sudan.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  11. Security Council LIVE: War, hunger, flooding escalates in Sudan

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    UN News

  12. Sudan war: $22 million education boost to help 200,000 children

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    UN News

  13. Video: Thousands of families flee fighting in Sudan’s North Kordofan State

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Thousands flee Sudan’s Kordofan fighting for relative safety of El Obeid

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. Open-air cinema brings movie nights back to Khartoum

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. More than 200,000 newly displaced in Sudan’s Kordofan region

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Sudan’s displacement crisis deepens as violence escalates

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0xf43c1ec924a35e1f55453c31b662ea65e623ca9d21aeec1b2af24844567f15c9

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • sudan-conflict

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