Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Probability

0.2%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 0.2% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 0.2% at
  • 7 days±0.0 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 0.2% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-10 01:22 to 09-17 00:21 UTC. Starts at 0.2%, ends at 0.2%, ranging between 0.2% and 0.2%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-1009-1109-1309-1509-17
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0000168 increments
  • 30 days0.0000168 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.88
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-17T00:21:08.746Z, calculated at 2026-09-17T00:46:11.893Z.
Participation behind it
$54,829 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.00

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-16T23:21:09.377Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-16T00:21:06.429Z
  • 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-10T00:22:07.356Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes

Confidence 0.88 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.86, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.99, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.46, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Turkish habit of stashing gold "under the pillow' hurts economy, government says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  2. Turks often keep gold as a hedge against inflation.

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  3. Turkey arrests dozens in crackdown on LGBTQ+ activists

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Criticism of LGBTQ+ raids in Turkey is growing

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  2. Turkish authorities launch anti-LGBTQ raids, detaining dozens

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Turkish police detain dozens in raids on gay bars and homes of LGBTQ+ activists

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  4. Turkey: 162 arrested in LGBTQ+ raids

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  5. Erdogan: The Making of Modern Turkiye

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. British Ambassador Jennifer Anderson CMG officially takes up her role as British Ambassador to Türkiye.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  7. Turkish jets perform dramatic flyover above Egypt’s pyramids

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Confiscation order for convicted fraudster

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  9. US imposes sanctions on Turkish bank, prompting legal threat

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Girl rescued by free-climbing neighbour from balcony in Turkiye

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Turkiye launches search for cargo ship after vessels collide off Istanbul

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Top officials from Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan to meet in Istanbul

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. Greece, Turkey clash over protected Aegean marine areas

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  14. Turkish, Somali forces free vessel seized by pirates in Somalia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  15. Turkiye summons Ukraine ambassador over Black Sea attacks

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. Large forest fire burns close to residential areas in Ankara

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Israel, Turkiye and the new regional reordering

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x32146c285b1d126556a309e3eae227f614076c93c0b080bae4ed6aaf6b1e9e5f

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • turkey

Last observed . Page built .