Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Probability

1.3%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 1.3% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 1.3% at
  • 7 days±0.1 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 1.3% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-10 00:22 to 09-16 23:21 UTC. Starts at 1.3%, ends at 1.3%, ranging between 1.3% and 1.3%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0000168 increments
  • 30 days0.0001334 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.83
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T22:21:08.210Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T23:16:11.893Z.
Participation behind it
$80,247 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.01

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-16T21:21:08.204Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-15T22:21:09.231Z
  • 7d±0.1 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-09T22:22:06.079Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 334 changes

Confidence 0.83 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.99, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.46, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. India summons Pakistani diplomat after incident in Arabian Sea

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. India news: US bill sanctioning Russia could hit India with tariffs of up to 100%

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. India: Meta to report child abuse cases to law enforcement

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Telecommunications industry leaders in the UK and India will harness the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to tackle online fraud, scams and harms.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  2. Millions line up for ‘sacred henna’ at Indian temple

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Viral hit-and-run raises road rage questions in India

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. India win Women’s Asia Cup but do not accept trophy

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Villagers in India tie technician to cell tower over 5G failure

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. BRICS summit opens in New Delhi amid wars, global tensions, tariffs

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. BRICS leaders meet in India as wars and US tensions test the bloc

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

  8. ‘The family paid the price’: India’s deadly online gambling crisis

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. China’s Xi heads to India for BRICS summit overshadowed by wars

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. India's BRICS strategy tested with Xi, Putin set to visit

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  11. BRICS Summit 2026: Putin, Modi reaffirm partnership

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  12. India news: Putin, Modi to hold talks ahead of BRICS Summit

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  13. BRICS red carpet sparks anger in India’s capital

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Putin lands in India for BRICs summit, shadowed by Iran and Ukraine wars

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. We want to move beyond elections, face of India's 'cockroach' movement tells BBC

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  16. India news: Government proposes elected body for Ladakh

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  17. Lindy is currently the British High Commissioner to the Republic of India

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0xbe70d1b2d9c50c2d91f5f309417735f4238682239593a6a0bb1340188befb6cd

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • india

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