Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Probability

0.2%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 0.2% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 0.2% at
  • 7 days±0.0 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 0.2% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-10 02:22 to 09-17 01:21 UTC. Starts at 0.2%, ends at 0.2%, ranging between 0.2% and 0.2%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-1009-1109-1309-1509-17
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0000168 increments
  • 30 days0.0000168 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.83
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-17T00:21:08.746Z, calculated at 2026-09-17T01:16:11.893Z.
Participation behind it
$99,448 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.00

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-16T23:21:09.377Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-16T00:21:06.429Z
  • 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.00 at 2026-09-10T00:22:07.356Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes

Confidence 0.83 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract1.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.69, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.99, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.46, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. New video claims to show Saudi fighter jet Houthis say they shot down

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Saudi club given stadium ban over Jota chants

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. Saudi Arabia calls an attempted Mecca attack a 'red line' as Houthis deny they did it

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Saudi Arabia says Houthis target Mecca, warns of 'red line'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  2. Saudi Arabia cancels oil to Europe over East-West pipeline blast

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Attacks on Saudi oil expose Iraqi PM’s struggle to control armed factions

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Egypt’s Sisi meets MBS, backs Saudi call for secure Red Sea navigation

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Saudi Arabia faces hard choices as Houthis gain in Yemen

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  6. Why Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline matters for global oil

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Yemen gov’t forces advance in Taiz as Houthis claim attack on Saudi Arabia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Mosque and homes damaged in Saudi Arabia after alleged Houthi strike

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Iran’s Pezeshkian: ‘We are not at war with Saudi Arabia’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Houthi projectile wounds two, damages mosque in Jazan region, Saudi says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Iran war live: Saudi Arabia and Houthis trade strikes over Bab al-Mandeb

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Iraq probes drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, shuts three crossings to Iran

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. Baghdad confirms attack on Saudi pipeline came from Iraq

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  14. Saudi Arabia shuts critical oil pipeline after drone attack: What it means

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. Saudi Arabia shuts key oil pipeline after drone attack launched from Iraq

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  16. Satellite image shows critical Saudi pipeline damaged in drone attack

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Iran war live: Houthis control Red Sea coast, Saudi pipeline shut down

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x8f77f96697dea0909edb2946e0eb866c08e9c2280964e70b1e5f25fcc0a747d0

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • saudi-arabia

Last observed . Page built .