Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Probability

0.6%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 0.6% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 0.6% at
  • 7 days±0.0 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 0.6% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-08 11:02 to 09-15 10:02 UTC. Starts at 0.6%, ends at 0.6%, ranging between 0.6% and 0.6%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0809-1009-1109-1309-15
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0000168 increments
  • 30 days0.0000298 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.12
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-15T10:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-15T10:25:59.526Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.01

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-15T09:02:00.000Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-14T10:02:00.000Z
  • 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.01 at 2026-09-08T10:02:00.000Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 298 changes

Confidence 0.12 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.87, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.92, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 10% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Palestine weekly: Settlement sanctions spark diplomatic crisis

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. B’Tselem: Israeli settler violence aims to eliminate Palestinian existence

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Israeli attack targets Gaza displacement camp

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Macklemore cut from Ed Sheeran tour for pro-Palestine stance

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Macklemore dropped from Ed Sheeran tour after 'Free Palestine' speech

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  3. Burnham must establish an inquiry into Britain’s role in the Gaza genocide

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Israel working to eliminate Palestinian presence from West Bank, NGO warns

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Israeli minister accuses 'NAZA' filmmakers of 'treason'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  6. Animated map shows spread of illegal Israeli settlements across Palestine

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Israeli minister threatens to revoke filmmakers’ citizenship over Gaza film

    2 independent origins · medium confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

    BBC News

  8. Pro-Palestine protest demands Australia increases pressure on Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. Jerusalem Daily: Pregnant woman killed in Gaza

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. US Envoy Jared Kushner says Doha attack left Israel ‘globally isolated’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Israeli raid targets Palestinian journalist Ali al-Samoudi’s home

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. French TV programme pulled after actress speaks out on Gaza

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. How Israel’s destruction of south Lebanon is making displacement permanent

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Israeli attack on Gaza kills two Palestinians

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. Israel bombs southern Lebanon as talks postponed

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. Gaza genocide documentary ‘NAZA’ wins Special Jury Prize at Venice

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Iranian official tells Al Jazeera IAEA ruling was imposed by US and Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-YGOL

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • israel-gaza

Last observed . Page built .