Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Probability

4.0%

very unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 4.0% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 4.0% at
  • 7 days±0.0 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 4.0% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 12:02 to 09-16 11:02 UTC. Starts at 4.0%, ends at 4.0%, ranging between 4.0% and 4.0%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1209-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0000168 increments
  • 30 days0.0022323 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.07
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T11:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T11:26:06.328Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.04

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.04 at 2026-09-16T10:02:00.000Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.04 at 2026-09-15T11:02:00.000Z
  • 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.04 at 2026-09-09T11:02:00.000Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.002 probability units per √hour, from 323 changes

Confidence 0.07 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 50% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.87, carrying 38% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sidesNot published by this source — its share was spread across the inputs that are.
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 13% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • the source publishes no bid/ask spread
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. At least 20 killed after war-damaged Gaza building collapses

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  2. At least 10 dead, dozens missing in Gaza building collapse

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Gaza residential building collapses, six families reportedly trapped

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Trump administration plans $2.8bn sale of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Israel started an anti-Qatar campaign, then scrapped it

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Israel lacking respect for dead buried in Gaza rubble: UN

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Israeli ‘influence campaign against Qatar’ launched after October 7 attack

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Who is Robert Kraft, pro-Israel billionaire who cancelled Macklemore?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. Canada, the UK and Australia should investigate the WCK attack in Gaza

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Why is pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil suing Columbia University?

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. Palestine weekly: Settlement sanctions spark diplomatic crisis

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. B’Tselem: Israeli settler violence aims to eliminate Palestinian existence

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Israeli attack targets Gaza displacement camp

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Macklemore cut from Ed Sheeran tour for pro-Palestine stance

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Macklemore dropped from Ed Sheeran tour after 'Free Palestine' speech

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  13. Burnham must establish an inquiry into Britain’s role in the Gaza genocide

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Israel working to eliminate Palestinian presence from West Bank, NGO warns

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. Israeli minister accuses 'NAZA' filmmakers of 'treason'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  16. Animated map shows spread of illegal Israeli settlements across Palestine

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Israeli minister threatens to revoke filmmakers’ citizenship over Gaza film

    2 independent origins · medium confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

    BBC News

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-BSMO

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • israel-gaza

Last observed . Page built .