Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Probability

21.5%

somewhat unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 21.5% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 21.5% at
  • 7 days±0.0 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 21.5% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-10 00:02 to 09-16 23:02 UTC. Starts at 21.5%, ends at 21.5%, ranging between 21.5% and 26.0%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1509-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0049168 increments
  • 30 days0.0060335 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.08
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T23:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T23:16:11.893Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.22

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.22 at 2026-09-16T22:02:00.000Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.22 at 2026-09-15T23:02:00.000Z
  • 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.22 at 2026-09-09T23:02:00.000Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.005 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.006 probability units per √hour, from 335 changes

Confidence 0.08 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.92, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.10, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 10% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. UK trade unions back motion to boycott and sanction Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. UK: Village votes to 'secede' in asylum center plan protest

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  3. The Minister for Europe responds to the Kosovo Specialist Chambers judgment, reaffirming UK support for justice and regional stability.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Environment Agency response outlining actions to implement the Nuclear Regulatory Taskforce Review.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  2. VMD and University of Liverpool delivering new research to close a key gap in UK surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in horses

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  3. Petrol and diesel price rises push UK inflation higher

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  4. A British Army drone swarm trial delivered by Dstl and industry partners marks a significant step forward in the UK's autonomous systems capability.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  5. The UK’s automotive industry is set for a major boost as high-performance car manufacturer McLaren Automotive announces it will expand its UK footprint and create 1,000 new high-quality jobs by 2032.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  6. Village votes to leave UK over asylum housing plan in symbolic referendum

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  7. Statement by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Yemen.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  8. Correspondence published in line with UK government requirements under article 5.3 of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  9. Canada, the UK and Australia should investigate the WCK attack in Gaza

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. UK Statement for the Interactive Dialogue on Mercenaries.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  11. MOD and UK start-up Alloyed co-develop a new family of digitally manufactured turbojet engines, built entirely in Britain, taking one engine from concept to flight in under seven months.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  12. Telecommunications industry leaders in the UK and India will harness the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to tackle online fraud, scams and harms.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  13. UK set to turn cooler as unsettled weather continues

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  14. Watch: Why Harry and Meghan's security in the UK to be reviewed

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  15. Harry and Meghan to have security review after return to UK

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  16. Farage says £72m donations are compliant 'with the law today'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    BBC News

  17. The Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has today announced the Government will work towards the public acquisition of Speciality Steel UK (SSUK).

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXNEXTUKPRIMEMIN-35JAN01-KBAD

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • united-kingdom

Last observed . Page built .