Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Probability 0.07

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

• 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.07 at 2026-09-15T09:02:00.000Z
• 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.07 at 2026-09-14T10:02:00.000Z
• 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.07 at 2026-09-08T10:02:00.000Z
• 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

• 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
• 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
• 7d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
• 30d0.000 probability units per √hour, from 298 changes

Confidence 0.07 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

• Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 50% of the score
• Age of the newest reading0.87, carrying 38% of the score
• Distance between the quoted sidesNot published by this source — its share was spread across the inputs that are.
• Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 13% of the score

• the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
• the source publishes no bid/ask spread
• manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

• This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
• The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.