Future Index
Forecast marketsKalshiOpenUp to date

Who will be the next CEO of JP Morgan Chase?

Probability

13.0%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 13.0% at
  • 24 hours±0.0 ppunchanged over 24 hoursfrom 13.0% at
  • 7 days±0.0 ppunchanged over 7 daysfrom 13.0% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-09 13:02 to 09-16 12:02 UTC. Starts at 13.0%, ends at 13.0%, ranging between 12.5% and 51.5%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0909-1109-1309-1409-16
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.000024 increments
  • 7 days0.0417168 increments
  • 30 days0.0530324 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

Low confidence0.10
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: elevated. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
KalshiForecast marketsKalshi
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-16T12:02:00.000Z, calculated at 2026-09-16T12:26:06.330Z.
Participation behind it
Not published by this sourceConfidence is scored as if there were none behind it, rather than skipping the input.
How easily it could be moved
Thin participation — this number could be moved at modest cost.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.13

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.13 at 2026-09-16T11:02:00.000Z
  • 24h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.13 at 2026-09-15T12:02:00.000Z
  • 7d±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.13 at 2026-09-09T12:02:00.000Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.000 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.042 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.053 probability units per √hour, from 324 changes

Confidence 0.10 — Low

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.00, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.87, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.40, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.15, carrying 10% of the score
  • the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
  • manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Kalshi alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Anthropic CEO didn’t foresee the speed of global AI growth

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Trump calls, interrupts Nvidia CEO to say AI fears are ‘a hoax’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Beijing hits back at Anthropic CEO's call to curb China's AI development

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    NPR

7 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Jonathan Walters, the Regulator of Social Housing’s chief executive, has reinforced the importance of strategic decision making and accountability in achieving more and better social homes.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  2. CEO Chris Larmer introduces the priorities for the year ahead

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  3. Good Good Golf CEO, president quit amid advertisement controversy

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. John Ternus succeeds Tim Cook as Apple CEO after 15 years

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Apple's new CEO John Ternus makes AI top priority

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

  6. A joint statement from Mike Cunningham CBE, QPM, SIA Chair, and Michelle Russell, SIA Chief Executive, on National Day for Victims and Survivors of Terrorism.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

  7. Charity Commission Chair, Julia Unwin, and Chief Executive, David Holdsworth, invite you to join our Annual Public Meeting on Thursday 15 October at 12.45pm.

    1 independent origin · medium confidence

    Reports

    Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourceKalshi
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract idKXNEWROLEJP-35DEC-JPI

Kalshi

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • corporate-leadership

Last observed . Page built .