Future Index
Forecast marketsPolymarketOpenUp to date

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Probability

6.5%

unlikely

Computed from this source alone. Observed .

Movement

Change in probability, in percentage points (pp).

  • 1 hour±0.0 ppunchanged over 1 hourfrom 6.5% at
  • 24 hours−1.0 ppdown over 24 hoursfrom 7.5% at
  • 7 days−2.5 ppdown over 7 daysfrom 9.0% at
  • 30 daysNo baseline this far back

History — last 7 days

Probability over the last 7 days: 168 readings from 09-07 15:21 to 09-14 14:20 UTC. Starts at 9.5%, ends at 6.5%, ranging between 6.5% and 10.0%. 167 gaps where the source reported nothing, joined by a straight line rather than measured.0%25%50%75%100%09-0709-0909-1109-1209-14
Probability, 0–100 %. Times UTC. Where the source reported nothing, the two readings either side are joined by a straight line rather than measured.

Volatility

How much the probability has been moving, in probability units per √hour. Scaled by elapsed time, so a source polled often and one polled rarely produce comparable figures.

  • 1 hourNot enough readings1 increment
  • 24 hours0.002024 increments
  • 7 days0.0033168 increments
  • 30 days0.0028278 increments

Confidence and coverage

Confidence describes how well supported the number is and never how large it is.

High confidence0.78
1 sourceForecast markets1

Manipulation risk: low. Method version 1.0.0.

How this is calculated
Source
PolymarketForecast marketsPolymarket
Freshness
Up to dateUp to dateRead at 2026-09-14T14:20:50.258Z, calculated at 2026-09-14T14:55:53.256Z.
Participation behind it
$45,394 of depth
How easily it could be moved
Enough participation that moving this number would take a substantial position.
Method version
1.0.0Stored on this value; it identifies the code that produced it.

Probability 0.07

The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. Full method for probability

Change over time

How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. Full method for change over time

  • 1h±0.0 points unchanged, measured from 0.07 at 2026-09-14T13:20:46.723Z
  • 24h−1.0 points down, measured from 0.08 at 2026-09-13T14:20:47.061Z
  • 7d−2.5 points down, measured from 0.09 at 2026-09-07T14:21:54.205Z
  • 30dNo reading far enough back to measure from — not the same as no movement.

Variability

How much the probability has been moving about within each window. Full method for variability

  • 1hOnly 1 change in this window — too few to estimate from.
  • 24h0.002 probability units per √hour, from 24 changes
  • 7d0.003 probability units per √hour, from 168 changes
  • 30d0.003 probability units per √hour, from 278 changes

Confidence 0.78 — High

How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. Full method for confidence

  • Participation behind the contract0.99, carrying 40% of the score
  • Age of the newest reading0.81, carrying 30% of the score
  • Distance between the quoted sides0.90, carrying 20% of the score
  • Time until the question settles0.20, carrying 10% of the score

Coverage

Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. Full method for coverage

  • This figure comes from Polymarket alone. Future Index does not combine forecasts from different sources into one number — why.
  • The source states no language or geographic scope for this question, so none is claimed here.

Read the full methodology

What was reported

Occurrences on the topics this contract is linked to. Each entry is one occurrence, however many outlets carried it.

  1. Why Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline matters for global oil

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Israel working to eliminate Palestinian presence from West Bank, NGO warns

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Israeli minister accuses 'NAZA' filmmakers of 'treason'

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Deutsche Welle

17 further occurrences on this page — show them

  1. Yemen gov’t forces advance in Taiz as Houthis claim attack on Saudi Arabia

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  2. Animated map shows spread of illegal Israeli settlements across Palestine

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  3. Israeli minister threatens to revoke filmmakers’ citizenship over Gaza film

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  4. Pro-Palestine protest demands Australia increases pressure on Israel

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  5. Jerusalem Daily: Pregnant woman killed in Gaza

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  6. US Envoy Jared Kushner says Doha attack left Israel ‘globally isolated’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  7. Israeli raid targets Palestinian journalist Ali al-Samoudi’s home

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  8. French TV programme pulled after actress speaks out on Gaza

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  9. How Israel’s destruction of south Lebanon is making displacement permanent

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  10. Israeli attack on Gaza kills two Palestinians

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  11. Mosque and homes damaged in Saudi Arabia after alleged Houthi strike

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  12. Iran’s Pezeshkian: ‘We are not at war with Saudi Arabia’

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  13. Houthi projectile wounds two, damages mosque in Jazan region, Saudi says

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  14. Iran war live: Saudi Arabia and Houthis trade strikes over Bab al-Mandeb

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  15. Israel bombs southern Lebanon as talks postponed

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  16. Gaza genocide documentary ‘NAZA’ wins Special Jury Prize at Venice

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

  17. Iraq probes drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, shuts three crossings to Iran

    1 independent origin · low confidence

    Reports

    Al Jazeera English

Resolution

Settlement rules: Not available.

Source

  • SourcePolymarket
  • KindForecast markets
  • Contract id0x95783b62c693ea42d8613482a625828fc14a288e8e8440b974c54d42f4ffd04b

Polymarket

This source's terms require a link back to the contract. Future Index does not yet store one, so the identifier above is shown instead.

Topics

  • israel-gaza
  • saudi-arabia

Last observed . Page built .