Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
概率
0.9%
极不可能
变动
概率的变化，以百分点（pp）计。
- 1 小时±0.0 pp1 小时内无变化
- 24 小时±0.0 pp24 小时内无变化
- 7 天±0.3 pp7 天内无变化
- 30 天没有这么久以前的基准
历史——最近7 天
波动率
概率移动的幅度，以每 √小时的概率单位计。按经过时间缩放，因此频繁轮询与很少轮询的来源得到可比的数值。
- 1 小时读数不足
- 24 小时0.0009
- 7 天0.0005
- 30 天0.0004
可信度与覆盖
可信度描述的是这个数字得到多少支撑，绝不是它有多大。
操纵风险：low。方法版本 1.0.0。
这是如何计算的
- 来源
- Polymarket预测市场Polymarket
- 时效
- 已是最新已是最新读取于 2026-09-16T06:21:05.781Z，计算于 2026-09-16T06:56:06.324Z。
- 背后的参与度
- 深度 $54,235
- 被推动的难易程度
- 参与度足够，推动这个数字需要相当规模的持仓。
- 方法版本
1.0.0与该数值一同存储；它标识产生它的代码。
概率 0.01
The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. 完整方法：Probability
随时间的变化
How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. 完整方法：Change over time
- 1h±0.0 点，无变化，自 0.01（2026-09-16T05:21:05.236Z）起算
- 24h±0.0 点，无变化，自 0.01（2026-09-15T06:21:58.645Z）起算
- 7d±0.3 点，无变化，自 0.01（2026-09-09T06:22:06.236Z）起算
- 30d没有足够久以前的读数作为起点——这与“没有变动”不是一回事。
变动幅度
How much the probability has been moving about within each window. 完整方法：Variability
- 1h这个窗口内只有 1 次变化——太少，无法估计。
- 24h每 √小时 0.001 个概率单位，取自 24 次变化
- 7d每 √小时 0.001 个概率单位，取自 168 次变化
- 30d每 √小时 0.000 个概率单位，取自 318 次变化
可信度 0.85——高
How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. 完整方法：Confidence
- 合约背后的参与度1.00，占总分的 40%
- 最新读数的时间距离0.81，占总分的 30%
- 买卖两边报价的差距0.90，占总分的 20%
- 距离问题结算的时间0.46，占总分的 10%
覆盖
Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. 完整方法：Coverage
- 这个数字仅来自 Polymarket。Future Index 不会把不同来源的预测合成一个数字——原因.
- 该来源未就此问题声明语言或地域范围，因此这里也不作任何声明。
有何报道
与此合约关联的主题上发生的事件。每一条是一个事件，无论有多少家媒体转载。
Statement by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Yemen.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源The Houthis bear full responsibility for the escalation in Yemen: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Statement by Chris Elmore MP, Minister for the Americas, Multilateral, and Human Rights, at the UN Security Council meeting on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源The United Kingdom will work through this Council to combat terrorism in all its forms: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
UK Explanation of Vote delivered by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, following the UN Security Council vote on the Sudan sanctions regime.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源The United Kingdom has long supported strengthening the UN sanctions regime: UK Explanation of Vote at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
本页还有 17 条事件——展开
UN envoy warns Security Council Yemen’s war has entered ‘dangerous phase’
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景UN envoy warns Security Council Yemen’s war has entered ‘dangerous phase’ 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Statement by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Yemen.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源The United Kingdom strongly condemns the Houthis’ decision to resume conflict in Yemen and their continued strikes on Saudi Arabia: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Statement by Ambassador Sarah MacIntosh, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Iran.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源A negotiated settlement is the only long-term solution to the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Guterres pays tribute to Qatar’s late Father Emir at UN ceremony
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景Guterres pays tribute to Qatar’s late Father Emir at UN ceremony 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Statement by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Syria.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Chemical weapons have no place in Syria, or anywhere in the world: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Statement by Ambassador Sarah MacIntosh, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN General Assembly meeting on Ukraine.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Russia’s actions do not change Ukraine’s sovereignty, nor rewrite her borders: UK statement at the UN General Assembly 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Statement by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Syria.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源We welcome the recent announcement on the dissolution of the Syrian Democratic Forces into central government structures: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
- 官方来源The violence directed against the commune of Kenscoff in Haiti, is horrific and unacceptable: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Haiti: UN chief condemns Haiti attack that killed 47
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景Haiti: UN chief condemns Haiti attack that killed 47 在新标签页中打开Deutsche Welle
Deutsche Welle
Statement by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Food Security.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Hunger is not inevitable, but often results from choices that deny civilians food, aid, and essential services: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Statement by Ambassador Sarah MacIntosh, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源The Ukrainian people should be in no doubt - the United Kingdom is behind you today, and for as long as it takes: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Statement by Ambassador Sarah MacIntosh, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Sudan.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源An end to the suffering in Sudan will only come through an humanitarian truce, a permanent ceasefire and an inclusive civilian-led political process: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
UN chief, Red Cross renew call for rules on lethal autonomous weapons
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
UN News
Security Council LIVE: War, hunger, flooding escalates in Sudan
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
UN News
Global food supply has become ‘collateral damage’ in conflicts: Secretary-General
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Global food supply has become ‘collateral damage’ in conflicts: Secretary-General 在新标签页中打开UN News首发报道
UN News
Security Council LIVE: Civilian suffering grows in Russia-Ukraine war
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
UN News
Statement by Jennifer MacNaughtan, UK Political Coordinator, at the Security Council meeting on Working methods of the Security Council.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Underpinning the United Kingdom’s approach to working methods is our desire for an action-oriented Security Council: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Statement by Ambassador Sarah MacIntosh, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Libya.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Libya’s leaders must use this window of opportunity to make progress on Libya’s political process: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
结算
- 状态进行中
- 截止
- 结算于暂无
- 结算依据暂无
- 阈值暂无
结算规则： 暂无.
来源
- 来源Polymarket
- 类别预测市场
- 合约标识
0xb9212b9cb5404a1db7aa30477619222b4100802f03f32a6fc5639c6e24fe0e1f
Polymarket
该来源的条款要求提供回到合约的链接。Future Index 目前尚未存储该链接，因此改为显示上面的标识。
主题
- united-nations
最后观测 . 页面生成于 .