Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
概率
0.3%
极不可能
变动
概率的变化，以百分点（pp）计。
- 1 小时±0.4 pp1 小时内无变化
- 24 小时−0.5 pp24 小时内下降
- 7 天−1.0 pp7 天内下降
- 30 天没有这么久以前的基准
历史——最近7 天
波动率
概率移动的幅度，以每 √小时的概率单位计。按经过时间缩放，因此频繁轮询与很少轮询的来源得到可比的数值。
- 1 小时读数不足
- 24 小时0.0013
- 7 天0.0010
- 30 天0.0009
可信度与覆盖
可信度描述的是这个数字得到多少支撑，绝不是它有多大。
操纵风险：low。方法版本 1.0.0。
这是如何计算的
- 来源
- Polymarket预测市场Polymarket
- 时效
- 已是最新已是最新读取于 2026-09-17T02:21:08.902Z，计算于 2026-09-17T03:16:11.895Z。
- 背后的参与度
- 深度 $148,372
- 被推动的难易程度
- 参与度足够，推动这个数字需要相当规模的持仓。
- 方法版本
1.0.0与该数值一同存储；它标识产生它的代码。
概率 0.00
The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. 完整方法：Probability
随时间的变化
How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. 完整方法：Change over time
- 1h±0.4 点，无变化，自 0.01（2026-09-17T01:21:11.585Z）起算
- 24h−0.5 点，下降，自 0.01（2026-09-16T02:21:06.847Z）起算
- 7d−1.0 点，下降，自 0.01（2026-09-10T02:22:09.213Z）起算
- 30d没有足够久以前的读数作为起点——这与“没有变动”不是一回事。
变动幅度
How much the probability has been moving about within each window. 完整方法：Variability
- 1h这个窗口内只有 1 次变化——太少，无法估计。
- 24h每 √小时 0.001 个概率单位，取自 24 次变化
- 7d每 √小时 0.001 个概率单位，取自 168 次变化
- 30d每 √小时 0.001 个概率单位，取自 170 次变化
可信度 0.77——高
How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. 完整方法：Confidence
- 合约背后的参与度1.00，占总分的 40%
- 最新读数的时间距离0.69，占总分的 30%
- 买卖两边报价的差距0.99，占总分的 20%
- 距离问题结算的时间0.21，占总分的 10%
覆盖
Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. 完整方法：Coverage
- 这个数字仅来自 Polymarket。Future Index 不会把不同来源的预测合成一个数字——原因.
- 该来源未就此问题声明语言或地域范围，因此这里也不作任何声明。
有何报道
与此合约关联的主题上发生的事件。每一条是一个事件，无论有多少家媒体转载。
What to know about US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in 3 years
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景What to know about US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in 3 years 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Watch: Why has the Federal Reserve raised interest rates?
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
BBC News
US Fed raises key rate for first time in 3 years
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景US Fed raises key rate for first time in 3 years 在新标签页中打开Deutsche Welle
Deutsche Welle
本页还有 16 条事件——展开
US Fed raises interest rates as inflation weighs on economy
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景US Fed raises interest rates as inflation weighs on economy 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting 在新标签页中打开Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System首发报道
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement 在新标签页中打开Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System首发报道
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Fed expected to raise interest rates.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
NPR
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 3 years
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
NPR
Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp. 在新标签页中打开Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System首发报道
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
US Fed chair warns inflation progress insufficient, hints at rate hikes
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景US Fed chair warns inflation progress insufficient, hints at rate hikes 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Fed's Kevin Warsh warns inflation is too high, sparking bets rate hikes are coming
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
NPR
Experts warn more flooding might hit Nepal.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
NPR
The stakes as high as Kevin Warsh is set to give his first major speech as Fed Chair
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景The stakes as high as Kevin Warsh is set to give his first major speech as Fed Chair 在新标签页中打开Npr
NPR
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico 在新标签页中打开Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System首发报道
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook denounces Trump’s mortgage fraud claims
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook denounces Trump’s mortgage fraud claims 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc 在新标签页中打开Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System首发报道
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New York Branch 在新标签页中打开Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System首发报道
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Regions Bank and former employee of United Community Bank
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Regions Bank and former employee of United Community Bank 在新标签页中打开Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System首发报道
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026 在新标签页中打开Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System首发报道
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
结算
- 状态进行中
- 截止
- 结算于暂无
- 结算依据暂无
- 阈值暂无
结算规则： 暂无.
来源
- 来源Polymarket
- 类别预测市场
- 合约标识
0xe0d9f508a249e0070db06eb7d1e1fb17eb23c963f6fb722c4c3f81e23240c1cd
Polymarket
该来源的条款要求提供回到合约的链接。Future Index 目前尚未存储该链接，因此改为显示上面的标识。
主题
- us-federal-reserve
最后观测 . 页面生成于 .