Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
概率
7.0%
不太可能
变动
概率的变化，以百分点（pp）计。
- 1 小时±0.0 pp1 小时内无变化
- 24 小时±0.0 pp24 小时内无变化
- 7 天±0.0 pp7 天内无变化
- 30 天没有这么久以前的基准
历史——最近7 天
波动率
概率移动的幅度，以每 √小时的概率单位计。按经过时间缩放，因此频繁轮询与很少轮询的来源得到可比的数值。
- 1 小时读数不足
- 24 小时0.0000
- 7 天0.0000
- 30 天0.0000
可信度与覆盖
可信度描述的是这个数字得到多少支撑，绝不是它有多大。
操纵风险：elevated。方法版本 1.0.0。
这是如何计算的
- 来源
- Kalshi预测市场Kalshi
- 时效
- 已是最新已是最新读取于 2026-09-17T03:02:00.000Z，计算于 2026-09-17T03:16:11.895Z。
- 背后的参与度
- 该来源未发布可信度按背后没有任何参与来计分，而不是跳过这一输入项。
- 被推动的难易程度
- 参与度稀薄——以不大的代价即可推动这个数字。
- 方法版本
1.0.0与该数值一同存储；它标识产生它的代码。
概率 0.07
The source's own most recent published probability for this question, unchanged. 完整方法：Probability
随时间的变化
How far the probability has moved over each window, in probability points. 完整方法：Change over time
- 1h±0.0 点，无变化，自 0.07（2026-09-17T02:02:00.000Z）起算
- 24h±0.0 点，无变化，自 0.07（2026-09-16T03:02:00.000Z）起算
- 7d±0.0 点，无变化，自 0.07（2026-09-10T03:02:00.000Z）起算
- 30d没有足够久以前的读数作为起点——这与“没有变动”不是一回事。
变动幅度
How much the probability has been moving about within each window. 完整方法：Variability
- 1h这个窗口内只有 1 次变化——太少，无法估计。
- 24h每 √小时 0.000 个概率单位，取自 24 次变化
- 7d每 √小时 0.000 个概率单位，取自 168 次变化
- 30d每 √小时 0.000 个概率单位，取自 171 次变化
可信度 0.08——低
How well supported this source's number is — never how large, how recent, or how interesting the number is. 完整方法：Confidence
- 合约背后的参与度0.00，占总分的 50%
- 最新读数的时间距离0.92，占总分的 38%
- 买卖两边报价的差距该来源未发布——它的权重已分摊到确实存在的输入项上。
- 距离问题结算的时间0.15，占总分的 13%
- the source publishes neither liquidity nor participation for this contract
- the source publishes no bid/ask spread
- manipulation risk cannot be assessed without a depth or participation figure
覆盖
Which sources stand behind a number, and which do not. 完整方法：Coverage
- 这个数字仅来自 Kalshi。Future Index 不会把不同来源的预测合成一个数字——原因.
- 该来源未就此问题声明语言或地域范围，因此这里也不作任何声明。
有何报道
与此合约关联的主题上发生的事件。每一条是一个事件，无论有多少家媒体转载。
UK prosecutors file for extradition of the Tate brothers from the US
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
BBC News
UK and Canada discuss AI risks and defence ties in first bilateral meeting
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景UK and Canada discuss AI risks and defence ties in first bilateral meeting 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
UK trade unions back motion to boycott and sanction Israel
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景UK trade unions back motion to boycott and sanction Israel 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
本页还有 17 条事件——展开
UK: Village votes to 'secede' in asylum center plan protest
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景UK: Village votes to 'secede' in asylum center plan protest 在新标签页中打开Deutsche Welle
Deutsche Welle
The Minister for Europe responds to the Kosovo Specialist Chambers judgment, reaffirming UK support for justice and regional stability.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源UK calls for calm following Kosovo Specialist Chambers judgment 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Environment Agency response outlining actions to implement the Nuclear Regulatory Taskforce Review.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Implementing nuclear regulatory taskforce review: letter from Philip Duffy to Chancellor of the Exchequer 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
VMD and University of Liverpool delivering new research to close a key gap in UK surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in horses
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源VMD-funded study calls on horse owners to help tackle antimicrobial resistance 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Petrol and diesel price rises push UK inflation higher
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
BBC News
A British Army drone swarm trial delivered by Dstl and industry partners marks a significant step forward in the UK's autonomous systems capability.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Dstl drone swarm accelerates Army autonomy ambition 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
The UK’s automotive industry is set for a major boost as high-performance car manufacturer McLaren Automotive announces it will expand its UK footprint and create 1,000 new high-quality jobs by 2032.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源Boost for UK auto sector as McLaren unleashes £500m investment to help reindustrialise Britain 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Village votes to leave UK over asylum housing plan in symbolic referendum
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
BBC News
Statement by Ambassador Kate Foster, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Yemen.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源The Houthis bear full responsibility for the escalation in Yemen: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
- 官方来源The UK strongly condemns the Taliban’s systematic discrimination against women and girls: UK statement at the UN Security Council 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Correspondence published in line with UK government requirements under article 5.3 of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源RPC correspondence: tobacco industry representatives 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Canada, the UK and Australia should investigate the WCK attack in Gaza
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
- 新闻背景Canada, the UK and Australia should investigate the WCK attack in Gaza 在新标签页中打开Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English
UK Statement for the Interactive Dialogue on Mercenaries.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源UN Human Rights Council 63: UK Statement for the Interactive Dialogue on Mercenaries 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
- 官方来源UN Human Rights Council 63: UK Statement for the Interactive Dialogue on arbitrary detention 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
MOD and UK start-up Alloyed co-develop a new family of digitally manufactured turbojet engines, built entirely in Britain, taking one engine from concept to flight in under seven months.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源New sovereign UK turbojet engine takes to the skies in under seven months 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Telecommunications industry leaders in the UK and India will harness the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to tackle online fraud, scams and harms.
1 个独立信源 · 可信度中
报道
- 官方来源UK and Indian industry join forces to combat digital fraud 在新标签页中打开Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.首发报道
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
UK set to turn cooler as unsettled weather continues
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
BBC News
Watch: Why Harry and Meghan's security in the UK to be reviewed
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
BBC News
Harry and Meghan to have security review after return to UK
1 个独立信源 · 可信度低
报道
BBC News
结算
- 状态进行中
- 截止
- 结算于暂无
- 结算依据暂无
- 阈值暂无
结算规则： 暂无.
来源
- 来源Kalshi
- 类别预测市场
- 合约标识
KXNEXTUKPRIMEMIN-35JAN01-ARAY
Kalshi
该来源的条款要求提供回到合约的链接。Future Index 目前尚未存储该链接，因此改为显示上面的标识。
主题
- united-kingdom
最后观测 . 页面生成于 .