Where the Turbulence figure comes from
How rapidly and unusually the things this product measures are changing, whichever direction they are changing in.
How it is put together
How far expectations moved
The Forecast Movement figure, entering here unchanged rather than being worked out a second time from the same questions. If it says expectations moved a lot, this figure reads that same number.
In full: Outlook — how much expectations are moving
If this produces nothingWith no forecast question that could be judged against its own normal, this part is left out and its share is passed to the others — never scored as expectations having stood still.
How unsettled forecast prices are
How much each tracked question's probability has been wandering, averaged across the questions with enough readings to say. A price that will not settle is a market that cannot agree with itself.
If this produces nothingA question with too few readings has no variability figure and contributes nothing here, rather than contributing a calm one.
How fast attention shifted
How far the tracked subjects' attention figures moved over the last day, in either direction — a subject collapsing out of view is as much a rearrangement as one erupting into it.
In full: Attention — how much of the tracked world is unusually active
If this produces nothingA subject with no comparable earlier figure is left out. If none has one, the part is left out rather than read as attention sitting still.
How far the discussion turned
How far the published Mood figure moved over the last day, measured without regard to direction: a discussion turning positive counts exactly as much as one turning negative.
In full: Sentiment — the balance of the discussion that could be read
If this produces nothingWith no discussion-tone figure from a day ago there is nothing to compare, so the part is left out rather than read as a steady mood.
How many kinds of signal moved at once
A count of the independent kinds of signal above — forecasts, attention, discussion tone — that moved beyond a threshold in the same window. It is a part with its own share rather than a multiplier on the others.
In full: Turbulence — how fast the signals are moving
If this produces nothingIf no kind of signal could be measured at all, the question is unanswerable and the part is left out.
Turbulence — how fast the signals are moving
Five parts, each scored from 0 to 1 and combined by the weights below: how far the forecast questions moved against their own normal, how unsettled their prices are, how fast attention shifted across topics, how far the tone of the discussion turned, and how many of those kinds of signal were moving at the same time.
The first, third and fourth reuse figures that are published in their own right rather than recomputing something similar, so a reader who asks why turbulence is high gets an answer that is literally the same arithmetic as the figure they can already see.
A part that cannot be measured is left out and its weight is shared among the rest. The parts are added rather than multiplied: forecast prices being settled does not make a violent swing in attention less turbulent.
The last part is a count rather than a magnitude, and it is a part with its own weight rather than a multiplier on the others — so several kinds of signal quietly agreeing that nothing is happening cannot be scaled up into a storm.
What this does not say
- **It has no direction and no valence.** A calm world can be a negative one and a turbulent world can be a positive one; this figure says nothing about either. A high reading is not bad news.
- **Nothing about how well this product can see can change it.** If several sources go dark, this figure narrows — the parts that cannot be measured drop out — and it does not rise. How much is currently unobservable is published separately, under Data Conditions, and never inside a reading of the world.
- It measures the signals this product reads, not the world. A rapid change nobody discusses, nobody trades on and nobody reports is invisible here.
- It says nothing about why anything is moving, and nothing here can express a cause.
Numbers this uses 10 constants
| Value | What it does | How it was arrived at |
|---|---|---|
0.3 share of the scoreturbulence.weights.forecast_movement | How much the forecast-movement figure counts toward turbulence. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.2 share of the scoreturbulence.weights.forecast_volatility | How much forecast prices refusing to settle counts toward turbulence. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.3 share of the scoreturbulence.weights.attention_change | How much attention moving quickly across topics counts toward turbulence. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.1 share of the scoreturbulence.weights.mood_change | How much the tone of the discussion turning — in either direction — counts toward turbulence. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.1 share of the scoreturbulence.weights.layer_concurrency | How much it counts that several independent kinds of signal are moving at the same time rather than one of them moving alone. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.05 probability per hour, square-root scaledturbulence.volatilityReference | How unsettled forecast prices have to be, on average, before that part of the score is full. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
15 index pointsturbulence.attentionChangeReference | How far the average topic's attention has to move over a day before that part of the score is full. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
20 mood pointsturbulence.moodChangeReference | How far the overall tone of the discussion has to move over a day before that part of the score is full. Direction is ignored: a discussion turning positive counts exactly as much as one turning negative. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
3 kinds of signalturbulence.concurrencyReference | How many independent kinds of signal have to be moving at once before that part of the score is full. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
0.4 share of a kind of signal's own scaleturbulence.layerMovementThreshold | How far one kind of signal has to have moved before it is counted as one of the ones that is moving. | A reasoned choice with no observed distribution behind it yet. Read it as a stated position, not a measurement. |
What this product does not claim
Stated positions about what this figure is, not a list of things not built yet.
What this product can see is reported separately from what the world is doing
There are two kinds of number on this site and they are never mixed. World conditions — attention, mood, turbulence, disagreement — are readings of the world. Data conditions — measurement quality, coverage, freshness, representativeness — are readings of this product's own ability to observe it.
Nothing here explains why a number moved
Movement and variability are measurements of a series. Neither is an explanation, and no figure on this site asserts that one thing brought about another.
This describes the topics and questions this product tracks, not the world
Every figure here is an average over a chosen set: a few hundred topics with names somebody wrote down, and the forecast questions that passed an admission policy. Nothing in the arithmetic knows what it is missing.
Every threshold on this page is stated, not measured
All the numbers here are stated defaults: reasoned choices with an argument behind each and no observed distribution to place them against. That is stronger than it sounds — it means none of them was fitted to anything, not even second-hand.
The rest of it
- This figure inside the full methodology, with every method it draws on
- Where the Forecast Movement figure comes from
- Where the Attention figure comes from
- Where the Mood figure comes from
- Where the Uncertainty figure comes from
- Where the Disagreement figure comes from
- The same methodology as JSON
- Which sources this system reads, and on what terms